Monday, November 23, 2009

NFL picks week 12

So far this year, I am 110-50 straight up, 94-65-1 against the spread. I have also moved up from 37th place to 11th place in the CHEZ online football pool. Three Thursday games this week!
Green Bay (10.5) at Detroit: The Packers need to take the easy ones when they can, and they won't be letting up on the sadsack Lions. However, the Lions all of a sudden looked really really good last week. Of course, that performance came against the Browns. Packers, 27-21. Verdict (Packers, 34-12). I thought the loss of Aaron Kampman and Al Harris would really hurt the Packers, and that Stafford would be able to complete some big throws. It turns out that the Lions are still the Lions, and I won't have any idea how rough the Pack's defense actually is until next week.

Oakland at Dallas (14): You can't take the Raiders lightly. Especially now that they appear to have ended the Russell experiment. That win against the Bengals was no fluke. Dallas is in serious trouble now, as evidenced by their loss to the Packers in convincing fashion and their barely-eked-out victory over the awful Redskins. I'll take the Cowboys at home, but this will not be a convincing win by any stretch. Cowboys, 18-17. Verdict (Cowboys, 24-7). All of a sudden, Dallas found their offense again. Or did they? It WAS against the Raiders. And Russell or no Russell, it appears the Raiders can't handle a defense like that of the Cowboys. Either that, or the Raiders only come to play every second week.

New York Giants (5) at Denver: Both these teams started 5-0. And both lost four in a row soon after. It looks as though the Giants may have righted their ship somewhat with a tough victory over the decent Falcons, while the Broncos have just collapsed, utterly. Still major questions on New York's defense, but bigger questions with Denver's offense. Giants, 26-20. Verdict (Broncos, 26-6). I couldn't have been more wrong about this one. No more questions about Denver's offense. Noshawn Moreno is a force. Still huge questions about New York's defense. And their offense now, I think. This was a far more dominant Denver victory than even this score would indicate. The Broncos still play KC twice and Oakland once, and they will finish 10-6, which could be good enough for the wild card!

Miami (3) at Buffalo: The Dolphins can smell a wild card berth, as long as they can continue to knock off the weaker teams on there schedule (and there aren't many). The Bills finally found T.O. and some offense last week - and still lost the game. They will lose this one as well. Dolphins, 18-14. Verdict (Bills, 31-14). Well, the Dolphins are now done. They needed to knock off the Bills, couldn't get it done, and now they have a really tough grind to the end of the season. Too bad, I like watching this team, and I would have liked to see them in the playoffs.

Carolina at New York Jets (3): A very tough game to call. The Panthers looked very good playing spoiler the last few weeks until they ran into a hungry Dolphins team. And the Jets did as well as could be expected against New England. I will take an NFC 4-6 team over an AFC 4-6 team. Panthers, 21-20. Verdict (Jets, 17-6). Not that the Panthers could have been considered a "spoiler" against the Jets, but they could have put more effort into the game than this. The coach says that putting Jake Delhomme under centre gives his team the best chance to win. That's true. But Delhomme also gives them the best chance to lose. Which makes this team impossible to predict!

Cleveland at Cincinnati (14): The Bengals were shocked by Oakland. The Browns put up 37 points on the Lions. What gives? Not like the Browns can do that two weeks in a row. Can they? Bengals, 22-18. Verdict (Bengals, 16-7). The Browns could NOT do that two weeks in a row. But they were still game, and held Ochocinco and the rest of the Bengals offense in check for most of the game. They just aren't a good enough team to beat Cincy. Or to score points against non-Lions opponents.

Indianapolis at Houston (no line): The Texans are very good, but they have run into some teams that are slightly better in recent weeks. Unfortunately for them, they are running into another team that is better this week. Colts, 24-21. Verdict (Colts, 35-20). The Colts are, indeed, better than the Texans. I was going to complain about that pass interference call that turned the game around and gave the Colts some life, but it ended up not mattering at all. Who cares about a gift TD early on when you end up winning by 15? And with the way the Colts have played in the fourth quarter this year, I never doubted them for a second - even down 17 points early.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (11.5): The Falcons are falling, and fast. And the Bucs are a really interesting up-and-coming team. But has this gap closed enough to permit a Tampa Bay win? I don't think it has. Falcons, 23-17. Verdict (Falcons, 20-17). It hasn't. Quite. With Matt Ryan out, I thought this game was done. The Falcons weren't doing anything on offense until that last drive. But what a finish!

Washington at Philadelphia (no line): The Eagles should have hammered the Bears, but they didn't. The Skins should have beaten the Cowboys, but they didn't. Washington is just a bad, bad team. Eagles, 33-16. Verdict (Eagles, 27-24). Again, what a finish! The Eagles should have hammered this team. And what was Andy Reid thinking with that onside kick to open the game? Against the Saints, I get it. Against the Skins? What gives?

Seattle (1) at St. Louis: What a crappy game between two crappy teams. Then again, that's what we all thought about Browns - Lions last week. Rams either get their first home win, or Seahawks get their first road win. Rams, 14-12. Verdict (Seahawks, 27-17). I guess they should have won. Still don't care.

Kansas City at San Diego (13.5): This might be the eliminator pick of the week. Although the Chiefs won a big one last week, and Matt Cassel finally looked like a real NFL QB, does anyone think they can do it two weeks in a row? Especially against the suddenly unstoppable Chargers? Chargers, 27-10. Verdict (Chargers, 43-14). Look out! The Chargers may be the only team capable of even looking at that second seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (3): The Niners are coming apart of late, and although they made a late charge at Green Bay, they also let the game get out of reach early on. They have one win in their last five games. Jacksonville, on the other hand, are quietly putting up a good record, and are currently sitting in what would be a wild card spot. They have one loss in their last five games. Make that one in their last six. Jacksonville, 26-21. Verdict (Niners, 20-3). Give it San Fran. Once they had the Jaguars down, they never let up, and kept their foot on Jacksonville's neck the whole second half.

Chicago at Minnesota (3): The Vikings are, in my estimation, the most complete team, and the best team, in football right now. Better even than the Colts and Saints. And they will steamroll the Bears, who have totally lost touch with their identities of late. All the Vikings need in this game is a win, and they have one more Lions game to run the table in their division. They want that. By the way, for some reason the opening spread in the CHEZ pool is 3 points - for the Bears! That's a misprint, likely, but a gimme at 16 points, isn't it? Vikings, 38-13. Verdict (Vikings, 36-10). Why was Brett Favre still in this game in the fourth quarter? Ah, crap! I was off by one.

Arizona at Tennessee (no line): The Titans have been coming on really strong, with four wins in a row after starting the season 0-6. They really think they can run the table. They can't - they do play the Colts at one point. But they can certainly win this game, with their secondary healthy. Chris Johnson will have a big, big day. Titans, 20-16. Verdict (Titans, 20-17). Ah, crap! I was off by one. This was one of the most exciting finishes I have seen all year. Gotta love Vince Young - hey, wouldn't it be bonkers if Tennessee made the playoffs? They would need a lot of help but, don't look now...

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (no line): The Ravens are still very, very dangerous. They have to hate the way they have lost so, so many close games this season, especially to teams in their own division. The Steelers have a few question marks, especially at QB where Big Ben Roethlisberger could be hurt for this one. If he is, it could be a brutal offensive showing for the Steelers against a still-rough-and-tough D. The Steelers lose their 3rd straight. Ravens, 20-17. Verdcict (Ravens, 20-17). That's the first time all season I have called the score exact! I am feeling so good about myself...except for all those other losses...

New England at New Orleans (3): The Saints are an awesome force. An unbelievable offense, and a sneaky, opportunistic, ball-hawking defense. If they get through this game, they play Washington, Atlanta and Carolina on the road, and Dallas and Tampa Bay at home. With the exception of Tampa and Washington, those are reasonably tough teams. But the biggest chance at an upset to ruin the perfect season comes this week against the Patriots. It won't happen. It won't quite happen. Saints, 32-30. Verdict (Saints, 38-17). I think it says more about the Patriots that they rolled over and died in the third and fourth quarter than it does about New Orleans. Sure, it was a blowout, but New England is a bully who beats on bad teams and curls up in a ball once they are getting crushed.

So far this week I am 11-5 straight up (121-55 overall), and 8-8 against the spread (102-73-1 overall)

27 comments:

  1. It is the best time to make some plans for the future and
    it's time to be happy. I've read this post and if I could I want to
    suggest you some interesting things or advice. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this
    article. I desire to read even more things about it!


    Here is my blog Louis Vuitton Bags

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers?
    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due
    to no backup. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?



    Here is my site; Air Max

    ReplyDelete
  3. Since the admin of this web site is working, no uncertainty very quickly
    it will be renowned, due to its feature contents.

    Review my page: http://www.converseshopfr.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi, just wanted to tell you, I loved this article.

    It was inspiring. Keep on posting!

    Feel free to surf to my website ... Air Max

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
    I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

    Here is my webpage; Abercrombie Fitch Belgique

    ReplyDelete
  6. Fantastic items from you, man. I've remember your stuff previous to and you're just too excellent.
    I actually like what you have received right here, certainly like what you are saying and the way in which through which you are saying
    it. You're making it entertaining and you still care for to stay it smart. I can not wait to read far more from you. This is actually a tremendous website.

    My weblog Cheap Jerseys

    ReplyDelete
  7. At this time it looks like Movable Type is the
    top blogging platform out there right now.
    (from what I've read) Is that what you're using on your blog?


    my web site Nike air max

    ReplyDelete
  8. It's wonderful that you are getting ideas from this paragraph as well as from our dialogue made at this place.

    Here is my web blog :: Abercrombie Bruxelles

    ReplyDelete
  9. Great blog! Do you have any hints for aspiring writers?

    I'm hoping to start my own site soon but I'm a little lost on everything.
    Would you recommend starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option?

    There are so many choices out there that I'm totally overwhelmed .. Any suggestions? Kudos!

    Feel free to visit my web-site Abercrombie Bruxelles

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'll right away grasp your rss feed as I can't in
    finding your e-mail subscription link or newsletter service.
    Do you've any? Please let me realize in order that I could subscribe. Thanks.

    Here is my web page ... Visit Website

    ReplyDelete
  11. This design is steller! You definitely know how to keep a reader amused.
    Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well,
    almost...HaHa!) Fantastic job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented
    it. Too cool!

    My page - vezha.kiev.ua

    ReplyDelete
  12. I am genuinely happy to glance at this blog posts which carries lots of useful data, thanks for providing these information.


    my blog post Sidney Crosby Jersey

    ReplyDelete
  13. Heya i am for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me out much.
    I hope to give something back and help others like you helped me.


    Review my site; Cheap Louis Vuitton Handbags

    ReplyDelete
  14. Your style is so unique in comparison to other people
    I've read stuff from. Thanks for posting when you've got
    the opportunity, Guess I will just bookmark this web site.


    Look into my page - Abercrombie Pas Cher

    ReplyDelete
  15. Sweet blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News.
    Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
    I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Many thanks

    Here is my website ... Chaussures De Football

    ReplyDelete
  16. I have read several excellent stuff here. Definitely worth bookmarking
    for revisiting. I surprise how a lot attempt you set to make the
    sort of fantastic informative web site.

    My blog ... Michael Kors

    ReplyDelete
  17. It's amazing for me to have a web page, which is valuable in support of my knowledge. thanks admin

    My blog post; Nike Air Jordan

    ReplyDelete
  18. This piece of writing is truly a fastidious one it helps new the web viewers, who are
    wishing in favor of blogging.

    my blog ... Sac A Main Louis Vuitton

    ReplyDelete
  19. I used to be recommended this website through my cousin.
    I'm no longer positive whether or not this submit is written through him as nobody else realize such designated approximately my difficulty. You're
    wonderful! Thank you!

    Feel free to surf to my site - Louis Vuitton Bags

    ReplyDelete
  20. I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming
    having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
    I'm not very internet savvy so I'm not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Kudos

    Here is my web site Learn More Here

    ReplyDelete
  21. Having read this I thought it was extremely informative.
    I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this informative article together.
    I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and leaving comments.
    But so what, it was still worth it!

    My site - web site

    ReplyDelete
  22. I like the helpful info you provide in your articles.
    I will bookmark your blog and check again here regularly.
    I am quite certain I will learn lots of new stuff right here!

    Good luck for the next!

    Feel free to visit my homepage - Air Jordan []

    ReplyDelete
  23. It's really very difficult in this busy life to listen news on TV, therefore I only use world wide web for that purpose, and obtain the latest news.

    Visit my web site ... Nike ID

    ReplyDelete
  24. You're so cool! I do not think I've truly read through anything like
    that before. So wonderful to discover somebody with some
    unique thoughts on this issue. Really.. thanks for starting this up.

    This web site is one thing that's needed on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!

    Here is my website Michael Kors **

    ReplyDelete
  25. Quality content is the key to attract the people to pay
    a visit the web page, that's what this site is providing.

    My website: Chaussure De Foot

    ReplyDelete
  26. For the reason that the admin of this website is working, no question very quickly it will be famous, due to its feature
    contents.

    Also visit my website Recommended Site

    ReplyDelete
  27. It's hard to come by educated people for this topic, but you sound like you know what you're talking about!
    Thanks

    My blog; Boutique Air Max

    ReplyDelete