Monday, November 16, 2009

NFL picks week 11

I am now 97-47 straight up, and 82-61-1 against the spread. Stupid Broncos. Back to 16-game weeks now and remember, Thursday night games now!

Miami at Carolina (3.5): The poor Dolphins have managed to run into every good team in the league this year, right when that team was getting good. The Fish are a pretty solid football team, and given an easier schedule they could be 6-3 right now. But they didn't have an easier schedule. They had this one. And they will be 4-6 after this game in Carolina, where the Panthers once again look unbeatable. It may be too late for Carolina, but they will cause some serious problems for good teams from here on in. Panthers, 27-20. Verdict (Dolphins, 24-17). Hmm. Without Ronnie Brown and all that he brings to the wildcat, Chad Henne and Ricky Williams were more than enough to shut down the Panthers, who looked great on their first two offensive drives, and pretty bad from that point on. Until late in the fourth, when it was too late. I would say look for the Fish to do damage from here on in, but look at their schedule for the rest of the season - Bills (win), Patriots (no), Jaguars (maybe), Titans (no), Texans (maybe), Steelers (no). Panthers' remaining schedule might even be worse. Both these teams will finish out of the playoffs.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (1): Do you think that there will be a letdown after that Sunday night dramatic win? Or now that the Colts have all but wrapped up home field advantage in Week Ten? I doubt it. I think this team will get to 12-0 before really being tested. Colts, 26-21. Verdict (Colts, 17-15). I shouldn't have phrased it that way - the Ravens really did test the Colts - their defense. And with the big INT at the end of the game, they came through. The Ravens are still very good. But they can't finish against a great team. Yet.

Washington at Dallas (12.5): Both these teams surprised me this week. The Redskins by showing up, and the Cowboys by NOT showing up. The Cowboys are starting to slip, as they always do later in the season, but Tony Romo just lost his first ever November game, to Green Bay. He won't do it in back-to-back weeks, not at home. Skins are 0-4 on the road, 0-2 in their division. Cowboys, 23-17. Verdict (Cowboys, 7-6). Two weeks in a row, no points for the Cowboys in the first half. This week, they waited until there were like 2 minutes left to score their first points. Thankfully for them, they were playing the Skins, and the one score was enough to win. Remember earlier this year when the Skins just, just barely beat the Rams, and we all realized there was something terribly wrong with them? Same goes for Dallas just, just barely beating Washington. Something is seriously wrong with this team.

Cleveland at Detroit (4.5): The Super Bowl of crap. Imagine - Detroit with a TWO win season! That is, statistically, infinitely better than last season. Lions, 9-6. Verdict (Lions, 38-37). Are you kidding me? THIS was the most exciting and awesome game of the entire season? I couldn't have been more wrong - I called 12 points, total. There were 12 total points by the 40 second mark in this one. Wha-happened? By the way - the Browns scored 32 percent of all the points they have this season in this game. And they still lost.

San Francisco at Green Bay (5.5): The Niners may have beaten Green Bay's division rival Bears this week, but truthfully they looked awful doing it. And the Packers looked amazing against the Cowboys. Packers, 31-21. Verdict (Packers, 30-24). Just barely covered the spread. Aaron Rodgers looked amazing and apparently got enough protection for once. But that defense let the Niners back into it late - a concern.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (8): Jacksonville and Maurice Jones-Drew had their way with the Jets. The Jets are better than the Bills. The Jaguars will have their way with the Bills. but who cares? Jaguars, 27-20. Verdict (Jaguars, 18-15). They made it a nail-biter, didn't they? The Bills held MJD to 66 yards on the ground. Terrell Owens finally broke out with a 200-yard game! And they STILL lost! The Bills suck.

Pittsburgh (10) at Kansas City: Having lost both their games to the Bengals now, the Steelers must pretty much win out to take their division. They will not let up on a weaksauce opponent like KC. Steelers, 33-17. Verdict (Chiefs, 27-24). On the plus side, you didn't lose any ground in your pool - nobody else picked this outcome either.

Seattle at Minnesota (11): The Seahawks are coming on a little of late, but if they can't beat the Cardinals given the opportunity (and they certainly were), how can they hope to compete against the Vikes? Vikings, 35-13. Verdict (Vikings, 35-9). I am so close to exactly right, that it's tantalizing. The Vikings could be the best team in football.

Atlanta at New York Giants (no line): One of the most intriguing matchups of the week. Both teams are watching their division slip away. Both are 5-4, and their seasons could go either way from here. I would even go so far as to say the winner of this game is the team I think will win one of the wild cards this season. And that winner will be...the Giants, who HAVE to turn it around sometime. Giants, 21-20. Verdict (Giants, 34-31). If the Giants can build on this win, they still have a very very good chance at their division.

New Orleans (12.5) at Tampa Bay: Why even analyze? Saints, 44-7. Verdict (Saints, 38-7). Why even analyze indeed!

Arizona (9.5) at St. Louis: The Rams probably feel decent this week, having finally won a game then played the Saints so tough. But Arizona is looking elite at the moment. Cardinals, 23-10. Verdict (Cardinals, 21-13). The Cardinals had a tougher time than they ought to have had with the Rams. Then again, most teams have had a tougher time than expected against St. Louis of late. Gotta love Stephen Jackson!

San Diego at Denver (no line): Here is the moment the season ends for the Broncos. They started 6-0, but they will finish out of the playoffs. You heard it here first. San Diego will win this division easily, thanks to their victory this weekend. Chargers, 30-24. Verdict (Chargers, 32-3). The Chargers have won five in a row, the Broncos have lost four in a row. And they got absolutely hammered in this one, in every facet of the game. Call it now - this division is OVER.

Cincinnati (9.5) at Oakland: The Raiders lost to the CHIEFS. 'Nuff said. Bengals, 36-16. Verdict (Raiders, 20-17). Again, the plus side - nobody else in your pool will have picked this one either. Always take Oakland to cover against good teams and NOT cover against bad ones.

New York Jets at New England (11): The Patriots are just way, way too powerful for the Jets. This game hinges on their response to that last-second defeat at Indy. If the defense is mad at Belicheck, they could lose. If, on the other hand, they are just generally pissed off, they will crush the Jets. Patriots, 27-13. Verdict (Patriots, 31-14). Yeah, they crushed 'em. This New England team doesn't get fazed by anything, and they are still (maybe) the most dangerous team in football. The Jets are done.

Philadelphia (2.5) at Chicago: The Bears looked like the worst team in football against the Niners last Thursday. And they have had an extra-long week to think about it. The Eagles need to start winning now, and stop licking their wounds and looking stunned. Eagles, 27-23. Verdict (Eagles, 24-20). There are still problems in Philly - the Bears aren't this good. This team is really, really missing Westbrook. Perhaps Michael Vick would make a good option out of the backfield at this point? He looked pretty good on that 35-yard run...

Tennessee at Houston (3.5): This is, actually, the toughest game for me to call. In Tennessee, I would pick the Titans in a heartbeat. I just don't know about Houston. I won't know about them all season, frankly. They could be the best team in football one week, and get beaten by Cleveland the next. Well...maybe not Cleveland. I think that coming off the bye, Houston will show rust, and the Titans momentum will carry them through. But only just. Titans, 21-20. Verdict (Titans, 23-20). Yep. Only just. The Texans didn't really show a lot of rust, coming out firing early. But the Titans are just plain winning with Vince Young at the helm.

I am 13-3 straight up this week (110-50 overall), and 12-4 against the spread (94-65-1 overall).

No comments:

Post a Comment